Do or Die Time: Chris Marrero E-mail
Written by The Miz   
Monday, 18 January 2010 18:13
chrismarrero

This evening's post comes courtesy of FFODC's newest contributor, Sean Hogan. Sean is a junior history major at Virginia Tech, and is a lifelong D.C. Sports Fan. He will primarily be covering the Nationals, but you'll see him contributing in some other areas as well. Sean comes to us from his own blog, DC Sports Plus.

Let's face the truth: not every hot prospect makes it to the big leagues. There is really no such thing as a "can't miss" guy; every player is susceptible to some degree of injuries as well as potential ineffectiveness. I'm going to look at some Nats prospects who have fallen off a bit over the last year or two and analyze whether they will bounce back or not. Today I'll look at 2006 1st rounder Chris Marrero.

Chris Marrero, 22 year old, 1B
Drafted 1st round, 15th overall in 2006.

2009 stats:
Hagerstown-high A: .287/.360/.464, 21 2B, 2 3B, 16 HR, 65 RBI, 58 R (414 PA)
Harrisburg-AA: .267/.345/.387, 6 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 9 R (75 PA)
Overall: .284/.358/.452, 27 2B, 2 3B, 17 HR, 76 RBI, 67 R (489 PA)

Career stats:
.276/.345/.462, 76 2B, 7 3B, 51 HR, 218 RBI, 188 R (1466 PA)

Marrero's 2009 was actually encouraging in the fact that he stayed healthy and got a good number of at bats. He hit very well in Hagerstown, which was a good sign considering he missed the end of the 2008 season with a broken fibula. His contact rate slipped a little bit in his short stint in Harrisburg, but his power fell off significantly.

While there was a clear and drastic drop in power in Harrisburg, I am not particularly worried for two reasons. First, the jump from A ball to AA is seen by some as the most difficult to do in the game; there is obviously some sort of adjustment period needed to be able to judge his stats for real. Second, the sample size is very small (84 plate appearances in 23 games). Marrero's rate stats stayed constant during the jump from A to AA, so I'm confident he will rebound in 2010.

2010 Fearless Prediction: .265/.340/.460
I expect his batting average to drop a little bit in the full-season jump to AA, but I think the BB rate and isolated power will remain semi-constant with his career averages.

Major League ETA: September 2011

Recent scouting notes:
"The initial pronouncements of a future middle of the order power bat have faded but he still has the chance to develop into a solid regular. His glove is going to be his biggest hurdle to reaching that status."-Nationals Farm Authority, 12/24/09

"The picture of Marrero has come into sharper focus. While last year, BA may have seen him as being more of an impact bat, the 2009 season began to paint a picture of a ceiling as a solid major league regular."-NFA, 12/3/09

"Marrero’s entire 2009 season combined showed a lot of progress. During the regular season he showed the kind of power he brings to the table. Then in the winter league he proved that he has the ability to hit for average as well, but sacrificed some home runs. Lets hope that in 2010 he can balance both sides out and hit for a high average with plenty of dingers into the outfield stands."-NationalsProspects.com

"I don't think he's going to be a star, but with proper development he can be a solid regular."-MinorLeagueBall.com, 11/18/09

Links:
FanGraphs


Digg! Reddit! Facebook! Technorati! StumbleUpon! BallHype: hype it up!
Comments (1)Add Comment
...
written by rgpie75, January 19, 2010
Good post. Always like to hear about the up and coming Nats.

Write comment

busy
 

Follow Us

ballhypelogorss_64

About Bloguin

Bloguin is the revolutionary blog network specifically focused on helping bloggers get the most out of their websites. We're currently working on building a large network of online communities and hope to expand our blogging coverage to include a wide range of topics.

Advertisers

The Bloguin Network allows advertisers to promote their products and services to our ever-growing number of visitors. We offer both site-specific ad placements as well as the ability to run a network-wide campaign. If you're interested in working with Bloguin to meet your advertising needs, please contact us.

Bloggers Wanted

The Bloguin Network is always looking to expand. We're specifically looking for blogs in the sports, entertainment, and video games field, but are open to adding any type of quality site. If you're a blogger and interested in joining our network, please fill out our application form.

The Bloguin Login

The Bloguin Login gives you full access to everything our network has to offer. Your name and password will work for each and every one of our sites. Signing up is simple, and will allow you to post in all our forums, create member blogs, and access other cool features! What are you waiting for? Create an Account!