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Entering this season, many people considered Semyon Varlamov the clear favorite to backstop the Capitals come playoff time. From the onset of the season, Varly didn't disappoint, posting only ONE regulation loss and some gaudy numbers along the way. Unfortunately, the biggest knock on the young netminder was his durability, and the expectation of injury ultimately turned to reality in early December. At the point when Varlamov injured his groin, he was either in or near the top ten of all major statistical categories among NHL goalies.
Bruce Boudreau was then asked to rotate an erratic veteran (with a confidence problem) with a rookie goalie (with a handful of starts to his name). While the Caps' offense has been outstanding at points (and downright historic at others), there was still a lot of concern about how well they would be able to perform with questions in their own net. The Caps went 5-6-0 in their first eleven games after Varly's injury, but bounced back with a solid stretch run that brought their record to 22-7 since December 7th.
So now Boudreau has to deal with a coach's nightmare, and a general manager's dream: having three healthy, competent netminders on the roster. How does he decide who to play, and who gets the nod when the games matter most? Gabby's got twenty-three games to figure out who's best. Many people believe Varlamov will earn the job back immediately, but I'm not so sure. Let's look at how the guys have played when they've been carrying the burden this season.
The Caps played 28 games prior to Varlamov's injury, and have played 29 since, so it's pretty fair to judge Varly's stats before injury against Neuvirth and Theodore since then. Here's how the stats shake out:
| Player |
GP |
GS |
W |
L |
OTL |
GA |
GAA |
SV% |
SO |
sub .900 |
4+ GA |
| Semyon Varlamov |
16 |
14 |
12 |
1 |
2 |
34 |
2.21 |
0.924 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
| Jose Theodore |
17 |
15 |
13 |
4 |
0 |
43 |
2.72 |
0.929 |
0 |
7 |
3 |
| Michal Neuvirth |
15 |
14 |
9 |
3 |
0 |
35 |
2.66 |
0.918 |
0 |
5 |
4 |
It's easy to say that the Caps would be in pretty good shape with any of these guys in net. Each guy has played very well when they've carried the burden, and each has posted very solid numbers. Theodore and Neuvirth have much higher GAA's than Varly, but they've also seen more shots that Varly did. If we're looking at consistency, each guy has struggled some, but not mightily.
Let's count a "bad game" as one where a goalie fails to save 90% of their shots or gives up four or more goals (last two columns). I understand that some of these games overlap, I'll account for that. Theo has posted seven "bad games" (three overlap) while Varly and Neuvi have dropped five each (four overlapping). In other words, no player has been far more consistent than any other guy. I think when you look at stats overall, there certainly isn't a clear frontrunner, so Bruce Boudreau will have a tough decision down the stretch. Who plays, who sits, and who goes to Hershey? The next 10 games will be key to figuring that out, because when you look at the numbers so far, it's a wash.
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