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Image Courtesy of ESPN.com
Today is St. Patrick's Day, which means the weather is getting warmer, days are getting longer, and the NHL Playoffs are rapidly approaching. This year, Captials' fans find themselves in a new position heading into the postseason. As of last night, the Caps are 47-14-9, hold a seven-point lead in the President's Trophy race and own a sixteen-point lead in the Eastern Conference (keep in mind that some opponents have games in-hand, but those are impressive leads nonetheless). For fans of elite teams right now, nitpicking lines, defensive pairings, penalty kills and power plays is commonplace. We're all looking to see what strengths or weaknesses will affect our teams the most when the games really start to matter in the postseason. So why should I be any different?
One of the biggest knocks about the Caps franchise is not that it's been historically lousy. After a rough start back in the mid-seventies, the Caps have actually been quite relevant in the postseason picture, making the playoffs following twenty of their thirty-four seasons to date. Unfortunately, they've only advanced past the first round eight times and have only made it to the Stanley Cup Finals once. So the overwhelming chorus that Caps Nation has to hear from opposing fans is "it's the Caps, so they'll just choke when the playoffs roll around."
So what gives us hope that this twenty-first trip to the postseason will be any different?
The Pensblog (ok, go ahead and jeer, but they can be funny and pretty insightful) posted some interesting statistics earlier in the week about Eastern Conference teams in one-loss, overtime, and shootout games. Basically, they brought up the fact that the Caps' record in those situations is more average than you'd expect, and that it doesn't necessarily bode well for breaking the typical May malaise. I'm not here to say they're wrong. Rather, they bring up some good points about how the Caps have performed in tight games. Considering the Pens are 7-2 in one-goal games on the road, the Caps must learn to win some tight ones if they expect to advance past their rivals.
While I'm not here to claim that the Capitals are extremely clutch, I do want to look at some statistics about how persistent and frustrating the Caps can be, even when the chips are down. A team that refuses to quit is certainly one that's tough to beat in a seven-game series, and that's something the Caps have in their favor. Let's take a look (Caps are highlighted in yellow, E.C. playoff teams in blue):
The Caps are the only team that wins more than they lose after a slow start, pulling out eight wins in fourteen games. The fact that they've only been trailing after the first in fourteen out of seventy games is pretty significant as well. So what...it's not like they don't have 40 minutes to recover from a slow start, right? Let's look at how they perform when they're losing after the second period.
There are a couple of interesting things to note about these numbers. First of all, Ottawa and Philly basically curl up and die when they're down after two periods. Both teams have lost all but two of their games that fit that description. Also, every other Eastern Conference team has at least seventeen losses of this type except for Washington, who has only nine. While the Caps have only trailed after two in nineteen games this season, they're only second in wins to Vancouver (who's done it in 28 games) and first in win percentage. In other words, if the Caps are down, don't think they're out.
The Pensblog also pointed out the fact that 65% of the Caps wins have been by two or more goals, so they might not be battle-tested in one-goal games (or at least big winners in that situation), but sometimes the hardest thing to do in the playoffs is to hold onto a lead. How do the Caps look in that category?
The Caps are middle-of-the-pack as far as Eastern Conference playoff teams are concerned here, but losing three out of thirty games in overtime is not bad when leading after two periods. This is probably the most telling statistic for why teams like Ottawa and Montreal are playoff teams despite being outscored on the season so far.
Basically, a person or analyst can bend statistics to suit whatever needs they have. Capitals detractors will point to their one-goal game record, while defenders will look at how well they've performed in other pressure situations. The pessimistic side of that 65% is that the Caps aren't as battle tested. The optimistic side is that they've been able to hold teams off and haven't blown many leads at all.
Regardless, the Caps should be plenty tested when the playoffs roll around, and they've proven that they can rise to the challenge when they want to. The biggest question in the playoffs will be whether or not that 'want-to' attitude will be there, because if it isn't present, we could see another early exit. The stats prove that if it IS there, we could be enjoying some great hockey all the way until June.
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